Why global conflict so often lands in the pockets of the financially vulnerable
By Richard Kirtley
In recent days the world has once again found itself watching events in the Middle East unfold with a familiar mixture of concern and helplessness. The language of international news can often feel strangely detached with talk of strategic strikes, deterrence, retaliation and regional stability, yet behind those phrases sit decisions that ripple outward through the entire global system.
Wars may begin with missiles, but their consequences rarely remain confined to the battlefield (or, let’s be brutally honest, the neighbourhoods and communities that have become collateral damage)
The consequences move through markets, supply chains, and political systems before eventually arriving somewhere much closer to home – the household budgets of ordinary people.
When tensions escalate in the Middle East, one of the first concerns raised by economists is energy. Roughly one fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow stretch of water connecting the Persian Gulf to the wider global shipping network. When conflict threatens that route, even the possibility of disruption can send energy markets into sudden uncertainty.
Markets respond quickly to that uncertainty. Oil prices have already shown volatility following the latest escalation as traders attempt to price in the risk that supply could be disrupted or shipping could become more dangerous.
At first glance this might seem like the sort of macroeconomic movement that concerns investors and governments more than anyone else. But energy is not simply another commodity. It sits quietly underneath almost every part of the modern economy with so much influenced by it’s availability (or in this case, lack of)/
Diesel fuels the trucks that move food across the country. It powers the machinery that farms rely on, the heating systems that warm homes, and the logistics networks that keep supermarket shelves stocked. When energy prices move, the effects travel quickly into food prices, transport costs, and the cost of everyday goods.
For households already balancing tight budgets, even small shifts in those costs can be significant. Analysts in the UK have warned that rising energy prices linked to geopolitical instability could wipe out the fragile improvement in living standards that many families had hoped for this year.
In that sense, global conflict travels in ways that are not always immediately visible.
It moves from missile strikes to energy markets, from energy markets to inflation, and from inflation into the quiet arithmetic of weekly household spending.
The hidden economic battlefield
History repeatedly shows that the economic consequences of conflict rarely land evenly across society.
When food and fuel prices rise sharply, wealthier households usually have enough financial buffer to absorb the change. For families already living close to the edge, however, a rise in the cost of essentials can quickly become destabilising.
A significant proportion of lower-income households’ spending is concentrated on necessities such as energy, food and transport. When those costs increase, there is often very little room to adjust elsewhere. The result is that global crises, whether wars, supply shocks or financial instability, tend to push those already on the margins even closer to hardship.
Research following previous conflicts and commodity shocks has shown how rising global prices can increase poverty and food insecurity across multiple regions simultaneously.
In other words, war has more than one battlefield. There is the one we see on television screens and in breaking news alerts, and there is another one, far quieter, unfolding in kitchens and living rooms around the world.
Decisions made far away
One of the unsettling features of the modern global economy is how quickly the consequences of decisions made in one part of the world can reach communities thousands of miles away.
Military decisions taken in political capitals can alter shipping routes, financial markets and commodity prices within hours. Those changes then filter through global supply chains until they appear in places that seem entirely removed from the original event.
A missile launched in one country can eventually translate into higher food prices in another.
The distance between cause and consequence can be vast, yet the connection remains real and very often the people most affected by those shifts are not those who made the decisions that triggered them.
Where small businesses sit in this system
This is where, we think, the work of organisations like ourselves at Purple Shoots begins to intersect with global events in ways that are not always obvious.
Purple Shoots exists to support people starting or rebuilding very small businesses, enterprises that often operate at the most fragile end of the economic system. Hairdressers working from home, local gardeners, craft businesses, catering start-ups, market traders and many more.
These are businesses built not with venture capital or large loans, but with determination, skill and often a modest amount of support. Yet precisely because they operate at this level, they also feel economic shocks first.
When inflation rises, their input costs increase. When customers tighten their budgets, spending on non-essential services can fall quickly. When energy bills rise, the pressure on both households and small enterprises becomes immediate.
Large corporations often have reserves, hedging strategies or financial buffers that allow them to absorb volatility. Micro-businesses rarely do.
The quiet resilience of local enterprise
However, there is another side to this story. While global shocks reveal the fragility of economic systems, they also highlight the remarkable resilience that exists within communities.
Every week at Purple Shoots we see individuals building livelihoods through determination and creativity: someone launching a catering business after years out of work, a gardener turning practical skills into a sustainable income, a market trader gradually expanding from a small stall to a steady local enterprise.
These stories rarely make headlines, but they represent something profoundly important. The ability of people to create stability, dignity and opportunity within their own communities even when the wider world feels uncertain.
Micro-enterprise is not a grand economic strategy. It is something quieter. It is people finding ways to build a life through work, skill and perseverance. When those efforts are supported with patient finance and trust, they can become surprisingly resilient.
A different kind of power
Watching the news during times of global conflict can leave the impression that power is exercised primarily through force, wealth or geopolitical influence.
However, there is another form of power that rarely attracts attention. It lies in small acts of economic possibility: a modest loan enabling someone to start again, a community supporting a new local business, a person discovering that they are capable of building something of their own.
These things do not reshape global politics, but they do shape lives. In a world where decisions made far away can sometimes destabilise communities overnight, the steady work of strengthening local economies matters more than ever.
The global system may be volatile but people, given opportunity, trust and the right support, remain remarkably capable of building resilience where they are.
Sometimes the most meaningful response to an uncertain world is not found in grand strategies or sweeping reforms. Sometimes it begins with something much smaller.
One idea.
One business.
One life moving forward again.